MetMalaysia warns of 90pc chance of Super El Nino by

What happened

Malaysia's Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) issued a warning on August 19, 2026, from Putrajaya, stating there is over a 90 percent chance of a 'Super El Nino' developing by the end of the year. The phenomenon typically brings hotter and drier conditions to the region.

MetMalaysia's assessment indicates the upcoming El Nino could rival the intensity of the 1997–1998 extreme event, which caused severe drought and haze across Southeast Asia.

Why it matters

A Super El Nino would significantly impact Malaysia's agriculture, water supply, and public health. The 1997–1998 event led to widespread crop failures, water rationing, and a regional haze crisis.

Businesses in sectors such as palm oil, rubber, and tourism could face disruptions. The warning serves as an early alert for industries to prepare for potential operational challenges.

Impact on Malaysia

Malaysia's economy heavily relies on agriculture and natural resources, making it vulnerable to prolonged dry spells. Palm oil production, a major export, could decline, affecting global supply chains.

Water reservoirs may drop to critical levels, affecting both urban consumers and industrial users. The government may need to implement contingency plans for water rationing and fire prevention.

Government response

MetMalaysia's advisory is part of ongoing monitoring and early warning efforts. The department is likely to coordinate with other agencies to mitigate potential impacts.

Authorities may also intensify public awareness campaigns on water conservation and fire safety. The private sector is expected to review its risk management strategies in response to the forecast.

Regional context

A Super El Nino affects not just Malaysia but the entire Southeast Asian region, potentially exacerbating transboundary haze. Neighboring countries like Indonesia and Thailand could face similar conditions.

International cooperation on haze monitoring and disaster response may become critical. The forecast also has implications for global commodity prices, particularly palm oil and other agricultural products.

What to watch

Observers will monitor atmospheric and oceanic indicators over the coming months to confirm the development and intensity of El Nino. Updates from MetMalaysia will be key for businesses and policymakers.

The potential for record-breaking temperatures and reduced rainfall will be a focus. Stakeholders should stay informed and prepare adaptive measures.